The dismissal of Zwelinzima Vavi foreshadows
another huge dip in the decline of COSATU – a federation that has split into
two camps, become a feeble voice in national affairs and recently parted ways
with one of its most powerful industrial unions.
Many ardent progressives, democrats and
supporters of the trade union movement are saddened by the turn of events.
In commentary, one cannot help but repeat certain
points made in the past. At the same time, new perspectives about the consequences
come to the fore.
It is best to see
the COSATU split at this stage through several connected observations – and to let
readers draw a picture of where things might be headed based on their needs and
interests.
Firstly, we need to note that the split is
between those who see COSATU as an equal partner in the alliance and those who
want COSATU to be obedient to the ANC on political matters. In terms of the
latter view, Cosatu is free to express its views, but once the father body
takes a decision, the federation must fall into line.
But a sober view would realise that an
alliance between a political party and a trade union federation will always
involve tension and robust debate. There will never be agreement on everything,
especially as (in this case) the ANC is a broad church while the federation embraces
socialism.
On joining the alliance, COSATU managed internal
critics of the marriage by insisting on the right to differ and space for
continual discussion of socialist imperatives. On both sides, skilful and
astute leadership facilitated the building of a strong alliance, tensions
notwithstanding.
But in recent years, some influential in both
the ANC and COSATU have displayed a desire for all-out ANC control of COSATU.
They have become greedy for control. This group includes those in COSATU who
see trade unions as a stepping stone to positions in the ANC and political
office.
Leaders like ANC general secretary Gwede
Mantashe opposed this total control agenda; he challenged moves by his comrades
to crush troublesome voices in Cosatu and equally opposed threats by
anti-alliance unions to withdraw from COSATU. Mantashe appealed for balance,
but was in the end left on the sidelines by an influential few who champed
at the bit to bounce NUMSA and Vavi out of the federation.
From Mantashe’s reaction, it is clear that
some union leaders – in a bid to ingratiate themselves with the ruling party – want
to be more ANC than the ANC itself. These role-players would do well to listen
to Mantashe's comments about COSATU, issued last week: “In their rush to hurt each
other, these leaders in Cosatu may find there will be nothing left of it”.
The split in COSATU will weaken the other alliance
partners and the alliance itself. The Communist Party stands to lose massive
ground. The party sees itself as influencing the mass of workers to support the
ANC in elections. In this regard, it sees itself as working politically –
especially near elections – to persuade the worker bodies in society to formally
support the ANC.
A split in COSATU will thus have an adverse
effect on the party’s influence in the ANC. In addition, the Alliance will be
weakened, especially if Vavi throws his weight behind another political party,
or if large numbers of workers change their political allegiances in response
to Vavi’s dismissal.
Emerging political formations – those hoping
to build an additional political voice to the left of the ANC – appear to
be happy about Vavi’s dismissal. Almost all of them have tried to recruit him
to their cause. These formations need Vavi not just to strengthen their popular
appeal, but also to help in strategy formation. Left groups are often afflicted
by narrowness and simplistic understandings of the link between national
liberation and class issues. Vavi would help them build a broad base and
identify campaigns that will have broad societal appeal.
But, for now, none of them knows which way
Vavi will go. Sources claim that Vavi will shun the role of alternative
political leader – that he is more likely to lead a move to build a new
federation, one that unites Numsa, the seven pro-Vavi COSATU unions and various
other labour bodies.
Even if Vavi does not join any of their
initiatives, leaders of the new left-leaning forces welcome the developments. They
feel it signals a new phase in their bid to exert a leftward pull on the
political system. As they see it, untold thousands of workers, angered by
Vavi’s dismissal, may look for new political homes and may turn to these new role players.
And Cosatu? The days ahead look cheerless
for COSATU. If the federation continues in the mode it has up to now – inward-looking, largely silent on national affairs, struggling to raise subs from
member unions and with limited policy impact – its decline will accelerate. In the light of
such challenges, taking a decision to dismiss Vavi is akin to a non-decision –
to fiddling while Rome burns.
For workers, meantime, there is still no
let up to the pressures they face. In the last few years, workers share of
national income has declined and, as Dennis George of Fedusa has pointed out,
this has decreased workers’ spending power and led to greater inequality. As
Stats South Africa reported in 2010, half of all workers earn less than R2500 a
month. At the same time, we have seen the rise of informal and vulnerable
workers – an estimated one-third of the workforce are employed as casual
workers. Such workers earn low wages, are denied basic benefits, have no trade
union representation and are deprived of the chance of advancement in their
lives. In this context, the latest shenanigans in Cosatu constitute a further
setback to workers.
No-one knows exactly what will happen – for example mass-level
responses, new alignments and other breakaways – as a result of Vavi’s dismissal
from Cosatu. But we can be sure of this: more flux and change in the
political landscape which in turn will fuel shifts in voting patterns in future
elections.
Frank Meintjies
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